In light of the recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report from the US on the delays in the F-35 program, Australian air power think tank, The Williams Foundation, has raised some questions about what this means for the Australian context.
“The foreshadowed delays in the development and delivery of the F-35 raise some questions that need to be addressed sooner rather than later,” the statement said.
“The RAAF has 71 Classic Hornets that were due to start being phased out in 2014 to coincide with the Initial Operational Capability (IOC) of the first F-35 squadron.
“In this context, it is important to note that only 10 of the Classic Hornets are undergoing centre-barrel replacement to extend their fatigue life.
“At the same time, the authoritative Aviation Week & Space Technology has reported that the USAF now does not expect to field its first operational F-35 squadron until 2018.
"RAAF F-35 IOC would of necessity be later than 2018.
"These delays in the F-35 program raise some critical issues for Australian defence.
“Can the life of the Classic Hornets be extended to cover the much later proposed delivery of the F-35; and if so, at what cost?
“Even if the classics’ life can be extended, will there be operational restrictions in terms of numbers and effectiveness that result in a capability gap until the arrival of the F-35s?
“And given that the expected IOC date for the F-35 has progressively been delayed by about four years in the last two years, would the present Hornet fleet be able to cover additional delays?
“Another complication concerns the acceptance of early production aircraft.
“Here, experience with the F-111C program could be relevant.
“The first Australian F-111C aircraft were to be delivered in 1968.
“Even though development and production slipped because of technical issues, Australia adhered to the delivery date rather than the production slot.
“As a result, in 1968 Australia took notional delivery of underdeveloped aircraft with technical difficulties.
“Consequently, there was a five-year delay in delivery while some of the technical problems were remediated.“Several modification programs and almost 10 years later, the RAAF eventually operated an excellent bomber,” the statement outlined.
“This experience suggests that there could be very good reasons for Australia to delay delivery of the F-35 until the production line is mature.
“Australia has 14 F-35s on order, with plans to acquire up to 100.
“In the Williams Foundation’s judgment, it would be sensible to wait and see what happens with the F-35, while simultaneously investigating the cost of capability issues involved in maintaining the classic hornet beyond 2020.
“An interim force structure based on Vigilare, JORN, Wedgetail, MRTT, AP-3C, C-17, 24 Super Hornets, and up to 71 Classic Hornets would still be world-class for the next decade.
“The issue is: what action is required to ensure that any further delays in an F-35 IOC do not result in a capability gap?
“The question is too important to be left unanswered.”
Disclaimer: ADM Editor Katherine Ziesing is a Williams Foundation board member.