Expect to see plenty of bad press about the Joint Strike Fighter now that the program has entered the phase which those with knowledge of complex defence equipment have long predicted would be a problem - integrating computer software so that JSF is actually fit to go to war.
That's already tipped to add more than a year to the project. It's a problem for the US Marine Corps which plans to stand up its first operational squadron in July 2015 and for the US Air Force which follows in August 2016 and the US Navy in August 2018.
On that basis, we don't have that much cause for concern. The RAAF is aiming for initial operating capability in 2020, by which time JSF, hopefully, will have achieved an acceptable level of capability.
Maybe we do have cause for concern though. Software development has a rich history of confounding predictions and far exceeding deadlines.
As it now stands, Australia is firmly committed to just two JSFs, both now heading down the Lockheed Martin Forth Worth line and set for delivery in the US later this year. The RAAF has even named the first two pilots to start JSF training.
In the 2012 budget, Labor opted to proceed with acquisition of these first two aircraft but deferred a decision on the next tranche of 12 for two years - which is just about up. A decision on second pass is imminent and may even have been made by the time this column appears.
The then coalition opposition slammed Labor's dithering but it now seems a prudent move. An earlier decision would not have achieved delivery of fully capable aircraft any sooner and could have locked us into paying higher prices for aircraft in earlier production blocks.
JSF's mission system features a breathtaking eight million lines of software code and it's long been expected this would produce delays.
Example: "The integration of various sensors and systems via the mission system software retains the highest technical risk for the project and is potentially the greatest source of production delays," said an article in this very magazine in 2007.
In a 2004 Australian Strategic Policy Institute article , then RAAF chief Angus Houston noted that the JSF software development task was truly challenging.
With JSF now flying regularly and not crashing, with longstanding technical issues with the pilot helmet, tail hook, lightning protection, fuel dump and more mostly resolved, the software challenge is emerging in stark relief as the final frontier.
The latest annual report on the JSF program from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) is headlined: "Problems completing software testing may hinder delivery of expected warfighting capabilities." So, not much ambiguity there …
In particular, the US Department of Test and Evaluation predicted delivery of warfighting capabilities for Marine JSFs to be delayed as much as 13 months. So US Marines Corps IOC might be pushed out to mid-2016, or even further.
Here's where the problems lie. In line with current practice, learned from hard experience, JSF, the GAO reports says, is fielding mission system software in five blocks, each building on capabilities provided in previous blocks.
The first two, blocks 1 and 2A, provide training capabilities and are mostly complete. Block 2B and 3i provide initial warfighting capabilities needed for Marine IOC. Block 3F provides full warfighting capabilities and is what the US Navy wants for IOC.
The problem is in block 2B which is well behind schedule. As of January, the JSF program proposed to have verified the functionality of 27 per cent of Block 2B software but had managed 13 per cent, leaving a whole lot of work to be done by the October deadline.
That, the GAO report says is "due largely to delayed software deliveries, limited capability in the software when delivered and the need to fix problems and retest multiple software versions."
During a visit to Australia in March, Lieutenant General Chris Bogdan, head of the JSF acquisition program for the Pentagon, gave a generally upbeat report card on progress but admitted he lost sleep about software.
He said actual JSF development was supposed to conclude on October 31, 2017. But, with no action to accelerate development activities, that looked like running 4-6 months and that was mostly because of software, especially what's termed "multi-platform fusion."
Each JSF can now talk to 6-8 other JSFs, sharing information to create an air picture visible to all, he said.
For full capability to be achieved, giving JSF the much-vaunted God-like situational awareness, each JSF will need to take information from satellites, AWACs, ground radar and other aircraft and then distribute that information to everyone else around.
"That is a really hard thing to do with software and there is some risk there," he said.
Bogdan said he was confident he could achieve the two outstanding software increments to give the Marines initial warfighting capability. Here's hoping.
There's more. Software problems may push up costs, though the current production profile points to a unit price under US$85 million in 2019. JSF also isn't as reliable as it should be, though it's improving.
And now for the somewhat better news.
Of the three variants, the conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) version which Australia is buying is most reliable and also the cheapest. The all-important helmet mounted display which has encountered no end of problems, is now working well enough to support Marine IOC.
JSF can safely dump fuel (more an issue for the US Navy) and is close to being certified to fly in or near lightning storms. Both problems had the potential to blow planes up. All three versions have survived fatigue testing for the equivalent of a full life of 8000 flying hours. But the STOVL version developed a bulkhead crack part way into second lifetime testing - not Australia's problem.
Despite reports that some nations are backing away from JSF as fast as they can, none have actually formally withdrawn, though some like Australia have hedged by pushing orders out to the right. The Netherlands has reduced the numbers it wants.
Even with the program's well-known issues, others are coming on board, most recently South Korea which has chosen JSF as its next generation combat aircraft. It wants 40 CTOL aircraft with an option for 20 more with first deliveries in 2018.
