Defence Business: Then, now and tomorrow: Wayne Mapp discusses Defence | ADM Dec 2011 / Jan 2012

Nick Lee-Frampton | Wellington

The 2010 Defence White Paper (DWP) says the next quarter century will be more challenging than the past one, ADM asked what makes that so?

“Well, the most significant issue is the rise of China, India and the ASEAN nations, relative to the United States. I think things are going to change and who is to say the rules stay exactly the same? Or apply in exactly the same way?

“Our fundamental desire is for stability within the region and so a change in the balance of power that doesn’t basically disrupt stability is probably our key objective.

Which is not to say that things remain the same; stability is not to be equated as unchanging, it means the absence of conflict in this context.

“I think the Middle East is going to decline in importance, relatively speaking.”

Kandahar airbase continues to expand, said ADM, how does this fit with talk of pulling out?

“They are there for another two and a half to three years, so over that time they would still have to be upgrading the base … Essentially the ISAF term in Afghanistan runs out at the end of 2014, but then there will be a training component — that’s not to say that NZ will be involved in that, but that a training capability might essentially be embedded in a couple of the major bases. This is effectively what happened in Iraq; they all consolidated back to a couple of their big bases.”

ADM asked if Wellington’s arguably professional approach to Defence, compared with the decades of essentially ad-hoc approaches, would continue.

“I took the view that the most important thing was to set the broad strategy, so my answer is yes, because it is very much embedded in the system. Part of what we have been trying to achieve is a cultural change within the … Ministry and the Defence Force. So, a strategic approach, but also a realistic approach.

“Some people will say we don’t provide enough to meet our own strategic assessment, that’s often a criticism made of NZ Governments because of the small amount we spend on defence.

“I actually think we get a lot of value for our 1.1 per cent relative to other countries. Because we don’t invest in a whole lot of contingency assets that are only relevant to global war, we have a ‘real world’ trained defence force.”

ADM asked what still needs to be done?

“Planning for the 2015 White Paper and the digitisation of the NZDF, which is a very complex project, but absolutely essential.

“Afghanistan is going to be a point of continuing anxiety for the Minister and the Chief of Defence Force (CDF) for the next two-and-a-half years.

“The full implementation of the Defence Transformation Plan, in the real sense of that word, is the big challenge for the Defence Force and the CDF — and for the new Minister.

“What we are doing really is transformation! I think the challenge for my successor will actually be seeing the strategic reform carried out successfully.”

What have you learned during your time as Defence minister? asked ADM.

“The enduring values of defence force professionalism on operations I already understood. What I learned as a Minister is that Defence is subject to a lot of institutional inertia and it is not easy to change the direction of thinking. … The organisation finds it difficult to change direction around its internal management.

“And in a changing, more dynamic world, Defence has had to catch up, be a bit more fleet of foot to be able to cope.

“Through the White Paper we have put in new management systems, we have given more authority to CDF. We have established a capability board and we have established the position of Chief Operating Officer.”

On what, asked ADM, have you changed your mind?

“On the big things I don’t think I have changed my mind.  I came in knowing what I wanted to do and by and large I have done it.”

Is that because you are resistant to change, asked ADM, or because your ideas have proven to be right?

“I think I came in with a clear sense of what needed to be done and I don’t think any of those ideas were shown to be essentially, fundamentally, wrong.”

ADM asked what will and what would you like to be remembered for?

“Carrying out a successful Defence White Paper and starting the implementation of its successors and essentially modernising the way that Defence does its business. I would have liked it to have been completed a year earlier, but it would be fair to say the challenges of coalition Government made that somewhat more difficult to do than I thought.

“I would like to be remembered for getting a better understanding within Defence that conventional military operations … and humanitarian aid and disaster relief (HADR) are both equally important to a defence force.

“The world has changed in such a way that HADR is as equally important and you have to train for it. You have to have certain types of equipment that are suited for it.

“I came in to Parliament in the mid-90s thinking, the world is changing, can’t you see that? You need to change with it!”

ADM asked about the finances of the portfolio given the wider economic context that the nation is facing.

“All Governments are sharpening their pencils. The years where defence contractors could say, well the price to buy is X and the price to maintain them for 20 years is X times three, please sign a price for four times X is probably gone.

“Defence’s capital budget is predictable. We know exactly how much we have got over the next decade and we know what we are going to spend it on. However, I think Defence is finding the operational budget, the stuff that pays daily expenses, quite challenging. It is do-able but they have to work hard to do it.

“One of the things I have found is that when people have to meet the test of the budget, they actually find ways to do it.  But they have to be told to do it, to find those savings.

“For example, we are one of the relatively few Air Forces that essentially trains all our pilots in-house from day one. That is a relatively expensive way of doing it, especially when they are only training 16 to 20 pilots a year.

“With the new advanced pilot training program there will be better opportunities for NZ pilots to do attachments to the RAAF and that would be a good thing because even if you don’t have an air strike force yourself, you still have to understand how it all works and one of the ways is to have people do it with the Australians. We need the RAAF to visit us probably a bit more regularly than they do.”

How secure, asked ADM, is the prospect of the three extra A109s?

“I had a meeting just very recently where someone proposed a contract to provide us, effectively, with the services of additional A109s. Those discussions are ongoing.”

How useful, asked ADM, was the public consultation regarding the White Paper?

“It enabled us to explain how we saw Defence evolving, particularly HADR as a key role. For ex-service people this was a new concept and we needed to take them through it.

“A lot of people felt NZ had got just a little bit too isolated in its foreign policy and one of the things we aimed to do was to bring things back to a more centrist view, for lack of a better term.

“I think it is important to demonstrate that Defence policy is grounded enough that it can survive changes of Government. If you end up changing defence policy every time you change Government you probably have not got a very good defence policy and so we worked quite hard to have a sustainable defence policy.

“That’s why, apart from the SAS in Afghanistan, there is not a lot of difference between the way Labour would approach things and the way we would approach things.

“I was given this Cabinet paper [to upgrade the frigates] when I became Minister and told we would like you to put this up to Cabinet and it will cost between $500-$800 million and I said we won’t be doing that, we have a White Paper on the way. And I said we must be able to do it cheaper than that and the figure we came up with was more like $300-$400 million.

“I think Labour would be pretty hard pressed not to spend that amount of money on the frigates because, if you don’t, the whole computer system on the frigates will fall over. It is a 1980s system essentially and at some point in the life of the frigates it basically ceases to be operational. So we’ve taken, I think, a prudent approach to those things and ones that are sustainable.

“Now, down the track NZ will have a debate about what we actually replace the frigates with. That debate will emerge, quite strongly I think, within the next five years.”

ADM asked about the expeditionary amphibious task force.

“I think it is an inspired concept. CDF Rhys Jones’s great skill is that he is a strategic thinker. That is widely understood to be his forte and the amphibious task group was his thinking about how to put a shape around the modern Defence Force. A lot of people thought that was long overdue, to be honest.

“The amphibious task force is about how you get the NZDF working together more effectively and how you find a way of melding together all the new capabilities.

Some people have been surprised at the ambition of it, but when I looked at the proposal it seemed to me a very credible concept and. I think it needs more publicity.”