The public version of the revised Integrated Investment Plan (IIP), unveiled yesterday in Canberra, has raised more questions than answers about the future of the Australian Defence Force.
Released concurrently with the inaugural biennial National Defence Strategy (NDS), which was itself a key recommendation of last year’s Defence Strategic Review (DSR), the new document is the first version of the IIP released publicly since 2016.
Going forward, like the NDS, new versions of the IIP will be released publicly every two years according to the government, subsuming the old practice of ad-hoc white papers.
The IIP, which stretches to 97 pages, covers a decade's worth of planned investments out until 2033-34 and includes more than $330 billion of planned funding which will be set out in next month's budget.
According to the document, investments outlined in the IIP will help drive Defence’s annual budget north of $100 billion a year by 2033-34. This, the government claims, represents an increase of $50.3 billion over the decade compared to the last government's plan, including an additional $5.7 billion over the next four years to 2027-2028. Approximately 38 per cent of the $330 billion IIP now comprises investments in the maritime domain, dwarfing other domains such as enterprise and enabling functions (22 per cent) and land (16 per cent).
A Force for What and When?
During his speech to the National Press Club the Minister for Defence, Richard Marles, responded clearly for the first time to criticism that the government isn’t moving fast enough to build up Australia’s military capabilities.
The challenge that the NDS and revised IIP are designed to address, Marles explained, isn’t a “worst case contingency that might be experienced in terms of great power contest in the next few years,” instead, he said it’s about ensuring Australian autonomy and sovereignty in the next decade.
“Our strategic challenge is not trying to be a peer of the United States or China. The strategic problem that we are trying to meet, that we are trying to solve, is making sure that in a much less certain world in the future we are able to resist coercion and maintain Australia's way of life,” he explained.
When faced with a choice between extending the lives of current platforms or acquiring new platforms “that we can have up and running in the next 10 years, we choose the latter,” Marles clarified, “because it is that strategic problem that we are trying to solve.”
Marles comments suggest that the basis of the government’s planning isn’t a Taiwan contingency or the so-called “Davidson window” which was coined by the former commander of the United States’ Indo Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Admiral Philip Davidson, who predicted in 2021 that China would attack Taiwan by 2027.
“Regional deterrence,” Marles explained, is “not a synonym for military or economic containment” which he described as “neither possible nor desirable”.
Question Marks Over Capability Decisions
Amidst this strategy, there are a number of question marks over capability decisions and investments. While Marles told the National Press Club that “difficult decisions” had been made to fund the revised IIP, neither he nor the department have provided clarity about what many of those are.
During his speech, Marles only recapped the previously announced decision to cut the number of Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVS) and announced that $1.4 billion worth of estate upgrades in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) will not proceed. He also confirmed that Sea 2200, Navy’s plan to procure two multipurpose joint support ships, will not go ahead because of the focus on increasing the fleet’s lethality.
The status of major projects like Sea 1905, Maritime Mine Countermeasures and Military Survey, and Air 6502, Medium-Range Ground-Base Air Defence, is not clear and as of writing Defence hasn’t clarified their fate to ADM.
Defence appears to have also cancelled future investment in the Hawkei Protected Mobility Vehicle-Light (PMV-L), with only $63 million of investment planned for the platform over the next decade, compared to $1.5-2 billion for the heavier Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicle-Medium (PMV-M) over the same time period.
Investment in Canberra class Landing Helicopter Docks (LHD) is also limited, with only $400-500 million worth of investment planned over the decade. Contrary to plans announced in 2020 by the former government, there are also no plans to fit the two LHDs with any kind of Close-in Weapons system (CIWS).
This relatively modest planned investment becomes even more striking when compared to the fact that, over the same time period, Defence plans to invest $1-1.5 billion into the Arafura class Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV) in spite of their numbers being cut from 12 to six earlier this year.
The IIP also revealed that, due to their “large and diverse weapons capacity” the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) will extend the life of its F/A-18F and EA-18G aircraft out into the 2040s. The Air Force will also not acquire any more F-35As, with the Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy telling media that those savings will be spent on missiles and other ordnance.
This includes plans to fit an undisclosed hypersonic missile on the F/A-18Fs, as well as ongoing studies about the feasibility of integrating the Kongsberg-Raytheon Joint Strike Missile (JSM) aboard the RAAF’s F-35As. F-35As, F/A-18Fs and P-8As will all be fitted with Lockheed Martin's AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM).
On the missile front, Defence will also accelerate the procurement of the Precision Strike Missile (PRSM) for the Army’s new strike regiment, which will operate all of Army’s HiMARS launchers.
The news comes days after the US Secretary of the Army told the Congress that the US Army “hopes” to eventually build on the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) production licence with Australia to include PRSM.
That goal aligns neatly with the government's plans under the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinances (GWEO) Enterprise, which is set to receive between $16-21 billion over the decade.
The IIP also includes funding for targeting and command and control systems, including $5-7 billion to procure a replacement for the E-7A Wedgetail fleet, and $3.6-3.9 billion for unspecified Air Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.
More Reviews Still to Come
As has seemingly become the norm, the NDS and IIP also includes several new reviews and reports that have been commissioned by the government. This includes the previously announced Defence Estate Audit and Naval Shipbuilding and Sustainment plan, as well as a new GWEO Enterprise Plan and shipbuilding forecast, all of which will be released sometime this year.