As Islamist militants surged through northern Iraq and were, it seemed, poised to swoop on Baghdad, there was much speculation about Australia committing military forces to help stem this malevolent tide.
This just wasn’t going to happen but some including the Greens, seemed to believe the government was just itching to send the troops back.
Reminder: Australia’s task group based in Iraq’s south withdrew in 2009 under a promise made by the then Labor government of Kevin Rudd. Some stayed on in various embed positions but they too came out with the Americans when Iraq declined a fresh status of forces agreement.
That remains the fundamental impediment to the US or anyone sending back any significant force. However, diplomatic agreements do allow foreign nations to deploy personnel to protect their missions, which is what the US and to a much smaller extent Australia has done.
That leaves air attacks on the Islamist forces – certainly doable by UAV or manned aircraft but not as simple as might appear because of the absence of targeting infrastructure to satisfy what would certainly be strict rules of engagement. That’s not insurmountable but it fundamentally needs boots on the ground.
For Australia’s part, the most useful potential contribution and one certainly canvassed at the highest levels, would be one or more Orion AP-3C Orion surveillance aircraft whose operators have recent Middle East experience in both water and overland operations over Iraq and Afghanistan. They could deploy quickly and we even have our base at Al Minhad Air Base (AMAB), UAE, from where they could operate.
That still remains a long shot.
The debate speedily moved on to a more pressing topic.
In much the same manner that Australian backpackers seem to bob up in every corner of the globe, some of our roaming jihadists have made it into Iraq and are now fighting with terror group ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), also known as ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).
These are likely some of the same people who trekked off to Syria. Depending on who you talk to, there’s up to 200.
The government has done what it can to keep Aussies out of Syria, cancelling passports of those suspected of planning to head off and refusing to issue others.
The government has been a little more circumspect in saying whether it’s cancelled passports of those believed to be fighting in Syria or Iraq. Passports of Australians abroad are actually cancelled all the time, most often when lost or stolen. An Aussie jihadist sans passport and wanting to head home would have no alternative but to front up at the nearest Australian mission for new travel documents.
Alternatively, it might be better to flag the passport but leave it in place, creating no suspicion and allowing the person’s movements to be observed, right up till he’s clapped in irons at Sydney airport and carted off for what could be a 25-year jail term for supporting a proscribed terrorist group.
The government, opposition, ASIO, police defence and many others have repeatedly expressed concern that jihadists could resort to terrorism when they return home – home for many being Sydney’s western suburbs where there’s a ready-made milieu of crime gangs.
This debate is running hot and there have even been calls for revocation of citizenship, leaving jihadists stuck in the Middle East forever, deprived of the manifold benefits of Australian citizenship, especially the social security system.
However, for those born in Australia of Australian parents, this simply isn’t possible. For others, it is possible – the rules say citizenship can be revoked where there’s been a false statement on the application or where citizenship was gained by fraud, for example through a fake marriage. There are likely few in this category.
It’s taken as a given that returning jihadists will pose a clear and immediate terrorist danger but a recent analysis by US intelligence group Stratfor says several factors will mitigate that risk. How could that possibly be, you might ask.
Over the last three decades, large numbers of Muslims have gone off to fight in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya and most don’t become terrorists. Some don’t survive the experience – on some estimates 10 Australians have already died in Syria. Thousands died in Iraq.
For starry-eyed jihadists, the lethal infighting between Islamist groups and ISIS’ propensity to murder other Muslims can be a reality check.
It’s also assumed that these battlefields impart terrorist skills but Stratfor observes that what jihadists receive is rudimentary training in basic infantry skills including how to use an AK-47 and some fire and movement. Few come home with the advanced skills of what Stratfor analyst Scott Stewart terms “terrorist tradecraft” including bomb-making, clandestine communications, surveillance and most importantly, counter-surveillance.
Terror groups such as al-Qaeda are well aware their adherents lack the skills to do a repeat of 9/11 and for the last 4-5 years has urged them to conduct attacks within their capabilities, a la Nidal Hassan, the US Army psychiatrist who shot dead 13 soldiers in a mass shooting at Fort Hood in November 2009.
Hassan used a FN Five-seveN handgun which he bought over the counter and al-Qaeda, through its media arm, urged others to conduct such simple armed assaults. Yet that's never really caught on - presumably jihadists, who realise, they have just one shot at the title, want it to be the big one. Their elaborate plots routinely bring them to the attention of security services and even local police.
That's certainly been the experience in Australia - those arrested attracted attention long before their elaborate terror plots were close to fruition. And that bring us to what Stratfor says is the most powerful factor mitigating the threat of returning jihadists and that's awareness, now greater than ever before.
The threat posed by jihadists who had gone off to Afghanistan emerged only slowly, right up to 9/11. Now there's not a security service on earth unaware of this risk. It's not just the authorities - Australians have proved quite willing to report any suspicious activity on the national security hotline (1800 1234 00). The tools of terror are now far less accessible - you just can't buy a tonne of ammonium nitrate fertiliser without good cause. No returning jihadist will be able to blend back into the community unnoticed, we hope.
