By the end of the year, there will be no Australian troops left in Uruzgan Province and most of those in Afghanistan will have come home.
For some reason, perhaps in line with familiar “troops home by Christmas” narrative, many Australians believe December 31 will mark the end of Australia’s mission in Afghanistan. But it won’t. Some 400 troops are set to remain out of some 1,550, most for much of 2014 and likely out to perhaps 2018.
That’s hardly been a secret. The former Labor government made clear to anyone who would listen, the mission would continue though the provision of assistance and mentoring in a variety of specialist areas.
Other than the smaller number, the big difference is their job won’t involve mixing it in close combat with the insurgents, although there’s no assurance that couldn’t ever happen. The insurgency remain fluid and capable of complex attack in unexpected locations.
There’s also the insider threat, substantially diminished as foreign troops have withdrawn from much routine contact with lower ranks of the Afghan National Security Forces and as they in turn have improved their background screening of newcomers. But it can’t be said it’s vanished entirely.
Australians initially started out advising the Afghan National Army (ANA) right at soldier level and up through the ranks to kandak (battalion), brigade and corps levels.
There’s a general view right across senior Australian officers in Afghanistan that the ANA can now fight well and is quite capable of defeating the insurgents in any encounter.
Where they still need help is a range of higher skills - unsurprising considering the ANA is under a decade old, raised in war and with a cadre of senior commanders who mostly learned their stuff fighting for or against the Soviets. There’s not a lot of depth in the lower ranks, either at junior officer or NCO level.
So just what will the diggers be doing in Afghanistan next year? First off there’s the newest mission, assisting at the new ANA Officer Academy (ANAOA), located in the Kabul suburb of Kargha and touted as our “Duntroon in the Desert”.
Since the Brits are providing most of the funding and the staff, it’s more likely to be Sandhurst in the Sand. The first intake of 271 cadets arrives in late October, chosen through a selection process designed to ensure that no-one gets in through family connections or cash rather than merit.
Australia will provide 36 of the 140 foreign personnel who will mentor the Afghan training staff, with the expectation that in around five years time, they’ll be quite able to do manage on their own.
Because, government installations in Kabul are popular targets for insurgent complex and vehicle bomb attacks designed to achieve maximum impact, the foreign mentor compound exhibits a high level of security. It’s guarded by British soldiers plus a reinforced platoon of Aussies equipped with Bushmaster armoured vehicles to get about.
Will Australian personnel be at ANAOA out to around 2018? The new government hasn’t outlined a policy but statements in opposition indicate ongoing support for the Afghanistan mission post-2013.
That could certainly evolve as other areas emerge where Australia could make a useful niche contribution.
Already that’s happening in such areas as logistics training. The Afghan National Army runs a very large storage facility in Kabul, with new-built warehouse chock full of stuff, around $4 billion worth according to one of the Australian soldiers seeking to help improve the processes.
So how does the ANA keep track of all this gear - with enormous great ledger books full of tiny hand written entries. Your correspondent isn’t making this up. The foreign mentors actually refer to Charles Dickens and one of the projects is to introduce basic computerisation, a significant challenge considering Afghanistan’s low level of literacy and even lower level of computer fluency.
For all that, the Afghans can still manage their Soviet era supply system well enough to find stuff and get it where it’s needed, albeit with nothing like the potential efficiency of a western supply chain which draws a lot from commercial systems which keep groceries on the shelves of Woolies and Coles.
The Afghan system also faces challenges not familiar to most western armies. For example, in order to maintain pressure on insurgents, the Afghan National Security Forces need to operate outposts and checkpoints in remote locations all year round, even in the depths of the Afghan winter. So it needs to some how keep up a supply of firewood in regions where there isn’t a blade of grass let alone a tree?
Australia has experienced a long association with the ANA 205 “Hero” Corps, based in Kandahar. Aussie soldiers long mentored the soldiers of its 4th Brigade in Uruzgan, the unit set to occupy the base at Tarin Kowt at the end of this year.
The 205 comprises some 20,000 soldiers with responsibility for security over a significant part of southern Afghanistan, including areas where insurgents remain active.
Australia will continue to mentor the 205 Corps headquarters for another year at least, advising on specialised skills such as planning, coordination, intelligence and logistics.
The team now comprises 19 Australian and nine US advisers, plus a platoon for close protection, a measure once unnecessary but now considered essential because of the insider threat.
Corps commander Major General Abdul Hamid, a well-regarded officer imprisoned during the Taliban rule and who previously commanded the 4th Brigade in Oruzgan, has plenty of time for the Aussie contingent. He said he wanted to stay as a close friends to help out but not to fight.
“We like them, we want them to stay as brothers and we want to continue our relationships with them. We still need the help of Australian people,” he said.
General Hamid sees one well-recognised problem. On a good day his air wing comprises under a dozen venerable Soviet-era helicopters.
This is a growing capability but one well short of the vast armada of coalition helicopters and warplanes soon set to depart.
