On 1 November, ADM reported Defence’s announcement of more Lockheed Martin C-130J-30 Hercules for the RAAF under Project Air 7404 Phase 1.
While the release did not go into very much detail, particularly in terms of numbers or whether a thorough analysis of alternatives was undertaken, recent documents have since shed a little more light on the project.
The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) released a statement on 2 November, announcing that Washington has approved the sale of 24 C-130J-30s, plus spares and support, for a not to exceed value of US$6.35 billion ($9.47 billion). The sale will be enacted under the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) mechanism.
However, the DSCA release did not specify a timeline for the acquisition and, in response to ADM’s detailed questions, a Defence spokesperson said only that the final aircraft “will be delivered in time to coincide with the existing fleet drawdown.”
The RAAF has a fleet of 12 C-130J-30s in service with 37 Sqn at Richmond, west of Sydney. The first aircraft was handed over in 1999 and the Planned Withdrawal Date (PWD) of the current fleet is understood to be in the 2030 timeframe.
The new Hercules aircraft will be acquired under the Commonwealth’s Air 7404 Phase 1 Medium Air Mobility Aircraft (MAMA) program which, judging by the time of announcement, would appear to be outside the terms of reference of the Albanese government’s forthcoming Defence Strategic Review (DSR).
“Defence is seeking approval from the US Government to procure the expanded fleet through FMS. The Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) provides not-to-exceed values, with actual costs refined as part of contract negotiations. Under FMS, the US Government is responsible for the contracting process,” the spokesperson said.
“The final number of the C-130 fleet will be approved by the Australian Government in 2023.”
Last week the Commonwealth released a Request for Proposal (RFP) for a sustainment partner under the Prime Contractor Sustainment Model (PCSM) and the document provides further detail, including the possibility of a second squadron being raised. The proposal documentation predicts a Rate of Effort (ROE) of 612 hours per airframe each year, equating to around 14,700 hours across the 24 aircraft fleet.
By comparison, the recent Defence Portfolio Budget Statement for 2022-23 documents the ROE of the current 12 C-130Js collectively as just 6,000 hours over the last financial year, but this is expected to grow and remain constant at 7,300 hours per year over the four-year Forward Estimates period.
The sustainment RFP further calls for 18 aircraft to be available at any given time, 14 of which are to be in a fully mission capable configuration.
The RFP also gives an idea of the timeline for Air 7404, predicting the first four aircraft will be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2027, aircraft five to eight in Q1 2029, 9-11 in Q2 2030 and Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in the fourth quarter of 2030.
Presumably IOC will also mark the completion of drawdown of the current Hercules fleet.
The RFP further states that aircraft 12-15 are expected to be delivered in Q2 2031, 16-18 in Q2 2033, 19-21 in Q3 2034 and 22-24 to be delivered in Q3 2035. Final Operational Capability (FOC) is given as the fourth quarter of 2036.
Naturally, the initial acquisition announcement raised questions about the future of the RAAF’s ten Leonardo C-27J Spartan airlifters, which were recently demoted from battlefield airlift to Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR) duties. However again, Defence did not address ADM’s specific questions on this matter.
In terms of a competitive evaluation, the 1 November announcement said that: “Defence has approached a number of aircraft manufacturers and received information on all available medium air mobility option. The relative merits of each aircraft type have been assessed against Australia’s capability requirements.
“Defence has identified that the new C-130J aircraft represents the only option that meets all of Australia’s capability requirements and assures Defence’s medium air mobility capability without introducing substantial cost, schedule and capability risk.”
Back in December 2021, ADM reported that the purchase of additional Hercules for the RAAF was under serious discussion with Lockheed Martin if not actually a done deal. So, if a thorough competitive assessment has been made in the meantime, it was completed very quickly and in great secrecy. Once again, Defence did not answer ADM’s specific questions on this subject.