Air power - Australia catches the wind

Australian air power is undergoing a measured but fundamental transformation with some $30 billion-worth of new and upgraded platforms and capabilities now on the way.
By the time this edition of Australian Defence Magazine is published, we should know what, if any, damage the US government's Quadrennial Defense Review has inflicted on Australia's plans to acquire a fleet of up to 100 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters.

There have been gloomy predictions that a significant cut in the Pentagon's anticipated order for the JSF will drive costs upwards and delay the project. This would put Australia in a difficult position: with the RAAF's ageing fleet of F-111C strike aircraft scheduled to retire from about 2010, and only a fleet of 71 heavily upgraded F/A-18A+ Hornet fighters to carry its strike and air defence workload until the arrival of the F-35A, the RAAF may face a significant capability shortfall during the intervening period.

But the body language of US industry executives close to the JSF program suggests the outcome may be more benign than originally feared. And in any case the RAAF's senior leaders argue that the new capabilities currently being introduced to support the Hornets (and in due course the F-35A) don't result in any capability gap.

In fact, the Australian Defence Force's (ADF) air capabilities are undergoing a AUD$30 billion upgrade which, even before the delivery of the F-35A and despite the retirement of the F-111C, will restore much of the capability edge it enjoyed within the Asia-Pacific region until about ten years ago.

With two key exceptions (one of them being the F-35A itself), the major components of this upgrade are already under contract. They cover four major areas: air combat; C4ISR; air lift; and Army aviation.

While nothing can replace the payload/range of the venerable F-111, the RAAF aims to field as close to this capability as possible through the acquisition of stand-off missiles, tankers and airborne early warning aircraft to provide its Hornets with the range, combat persistence and precision strike capability it needs.

The RAAF's rolling Hornet Upgrade (HUG) program, Project Air 5376, has seen the Hornets equipped with the Raytheon APG-73 radar, secure radios and upgraded mission computers and GPS/INS navigation system which enable it to operate a new generation of air-air missiles, the Raytheon AIM-120C AMRAAM and MBDA AIM-132 ASRAAM. Hornets in this configuration (minus the ASRAAM) deployed to the Gulf as part of the US-led coalition in early-2003.

Ongoing upgrades will equip the Hornets with colour multi-function cockpit displays, the US Joint Helmet-Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS) and the US MIDS/Link 16 tactical data system. The upgrades bring the Hornets up to F/A-18A+ configuration - approximately the equivalent of a late-model F/A-18C/D, though still with the A/B airframe.

The upgrades also equip the Hornets to operate the Boeing GBU-31-32 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) which the RAAF has selected to enhance its stock of Mk82 and 84 bombs and BLU-109 penetrator warheads and serve alongside its existing Raytheon Paveway laser-guided bomb kits.

To see the Hornets through to their eventual withdrawal date the RAAF has begun Phase 3 of the HUG, which will see an initial 15 aircraft fitted with a new centre fuselage section ('centre barrel') to offset the effects of cumulative airframe fatigue; provision has also been made for further aircraft to undergo the centre barrel replacement - exact numbers haven't been decided as yet.

So far as direct combat capability is concerned, the missing part of the jigsaw is the RAAF's Follow-On Stand-Off Weapon, to be acquired under project Air 5418 at a cost of around AUD$500 million. Only two companies tendered for this contract last year - Boeing, offering the AGM-84H SLAM-ER and Lockheed Martin, offering the AGM-158 Joint Air-Surface Stand-Off Missile (JASSM). Whichever is selected will also arm the RAAF's AP-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft. A final decision has been due for some months and may have been announced by the time this edition of ADM is published. JASSM was the preferred solution after an initial solicitation of interest by the Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO) back in 1999/2000, but five years on things may have changed.

Another critical force multiplier will be the RAAF's fleet of five Airbus A330-200 Multi-Role Tanker Transports which are currently under construction in Europe under a AUD$1.8 billion contract with EADS Airbus. These will replace the RAAF's three surviving Boeing 707 tankers from 2008; equipped with both hose and drogue and flying boom refuelling systems the new tankers will be able to refuel every aircraft in the RAAF's inventory as well as those of its allies - notably the US Air Force and neighbours and coalition partners operating USAF aircraft such as the F-15 and F-16.

The A330-200 tankers will carry over twice as much fuel as the B707s and in addition will be able to carry up to 300 personnel and over 40 tonnes of cargo in a single lift.

The centre-piece of the ADF's upgraded Command, Control, Communications, Computing, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities will be the RAAF's six new Boeing 737 Wedgetail Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft, the first two of which will be delivered from Seattle late this year. The remaining four will be modified by Boeing Australia Ltd at its facility on RAAF Base Amberley, near Brisbane.

The Wedgetails will provide both an early warning and battle management capability and provide much of the essential airborne 'connectivity' which will enable the F-35A Joint Strike Fighter to deliver its full combat potential.

On the ground, Boeing Australia has finally begun work on the RAAF's long-delayed Vigilare air defence command and control system under the AUD$127 million Project Air 5333. This will provide a key interface between the ADF's various air defence and command and control assets, including the RAN's Air warfare Destroyers, the Army's ground-based air defence systems and the ADF's various single service and joint headquarters within Australia and deployed overseas.

The RAAF's principal ISR assets at present are its 18 AP-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft; these are scheduled to be replaced from about 2015 by a new manned maritime patrol aircraft, and supplemented from about 2009 by a fleet of High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs. The expected force mix, according to current Chief of the defence Force Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston, is about six UAVs and about eight or nine manned aircraft.

The UAV contest will be between the Northrop Grumman RQ-4A Global Hawk and General Atomics' RQ-8A Mariner, a derivative of its existing Predator and Altair UAVs. The Mariner's case was strengthened recently by the Australian Customs Service's decision to re-appoint the current incumbent, Adelaide-based Surveillance Australia, as contractor for its ten-year, AUD$1 billion Coastwatch aerial surveillance program. Surveillance Australia's bid included the Mariner UAV and Surveillance Australia and General Atomics will also offer the Mariner for Phase 1, the UAV element, of Project Air 7000.

The AUD$3.5-4.5 billion manned aircraft element of Air 7000, Phase 2, will see the ADF choose between extending the lives of the Orions for a further 15-20 years or replacing them with an all-new platform. There is only one realistic contender to replace the Orions: the US Navy's B737-based P-8A Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft (MMA) which is currently being developed by Boeing. Canberra's choice here lies between investing some AUD$300 million in the MMA System Development and Demonstration (SDD) phase, as it has already with the Joint Strike Fighter, or simply acquiring the P-8A off the shelf under a US Foreign Military Sales arrangement some time in the future. A decision could be announced this year.

The RAAF's airlift options are described in more detail elsewhere in this edition of ADM (seep.xx). In short, the RAAF currently operates 12 C-130J Hercules, a further 12 C-130Hs and must decide some time this year whether to replace or refurbish the H-model aircraft - and if it is to replace them, with what.

Given Australia's perennial budget pressure and the global proliferation of C-130H structural and avionics upgrade programs, refurbishing at least some of the RAAFs C-130Hs to extend their lives by another 15 years or so would seem the most cost-effective and low-risk option. At the same time, the ADF's recently completed Lift Study, which has not yet been released and which addresses sea lift as well as airlift, is understood to have made a compelling case for the acquisition of a small force of heavy airlifters.

The two contenders for the heavy airlift contract are Boeing's C-17 and the Airbus Military A400M. ADM understands a costed proposal or this project will go to the Australian federal cabinet during the first quarter of this year. It is possible the RAF will see only a proportion of its C-130Hs upgraded (or replaced) and four or five heavy airlifters acquired instead.

It remains to be seen what the Lift Study has to say about the capability currently afforded by the RAAF's fleet of 14 ageing but still valuable DHC-4 Caribou piston engine STOL transports. An attempt to replace them four years ago under Project Air 5498 with a modern fixed-wing transport aircraft was cancelled for budgetary reasons after the EADS-CASA C-295 had been selected in preference to the LMATTS C-27J Spartan. But the Caribous won't go on for ever and the Lift Study is believed to have made a recommendation on how to maintain or replace the unique capabilities of the Caribous.

In a way Australian Army Aviation is seeing the most significant change of all of the ADF's air arms. The Army had long needed a modern attack and recce helicopter and has started taking delivery of its 22 Eurocopter Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopters (ARH). These will equip two fully operational squadrons by late-2008 and will replace the Army's Vietnam-vintage UH-1H 'Huey' gunships and the Bell 206 Kiowa light observation helicopters.

Eurocopter also scored a significant win in 2005 when its NH90 (dubbed MRH90 for Australia) was selected as the Army's new Additional Trooplift Helicopter (ATH) under Project Air 9000. Some 12 aircraft will be acquired under a AUD$1 billion contract, but the big prize is Army's contract to either refurbish or replace its current fleet of 35 SH-70A Black Hawk trooplift helicopters. A decision on whether to replace these with a further 28 MRH90s or acquire the modern, better-marinised version of the US Army's CH-60 Black Hawk is also expected this year.

One of the big challenges for Australia's defence industry is to secure a significant role in the manufacture, assembly and in-service support of these new and upgraded platforms.

While Australia's aerospace industry has traditionally performed the majority of in-service support for the ADF's platforms, the sheer scale of the ADF's current capital equipment acquisition program has triggered concerns about how much of this procurement money - some AUD$30 billion - will be spent in Australia with Australian companies.

There's no doubt that the FOSOW, JDAM kits and F-35As will be manufactured in the USA, along with the Boeing 737 and Airbus A330-200 airframes that form the basis of the RAAF's Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft and tankers, respectively. Any new airlifters acquired by the RAAF will be manufactured overseas, as will the manned and unmanned maritime patrol aircraft to be acquired under Project Air 7000.

The opportunities in these new build programs for Australia's aerospace and electronics industries lie in just three areas: local assembly or upgrading of helicopters such as the Tiger ARH and MRH90, or aircraft such as the Hornet and Orion; local modification of the Wedgetail (four aircraft will be modified by Boeing) and the A330-200 tankers (similarly four of the RAAF's five aircraft will be modified by Qantas Defence Services in Brisbane); and component manufacture, either specifically for ADF aircraft or as part of the prime contractor's global supply chain.

That last area is increasingly significant, and the Australian federal government has made global supply chains a key part of both the rhetoric and the substance of its evolving defence industry policy. BAE Systems Australia has won AUD$500 million-worth of work on the Wedgetail program providing an integrated EW suite for the RAF's aircraft which might also score sales among other Wedgetail customers.

Also, BAE Systems and 17 other Australian firms have won work on the Joint Strike Fighter SDD program. The total value of this work is less than AUD$100 million, which looks like a miniscule proportion of Australia's anticipated AUD$12 billion spend on the JSF, but the SDD phase will see only 22 aircraft built. Tenders are starting to emerge for work on the 600-aircraft Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) phase of the JSF program; a few years down the track prime contractor Lockheed Martin will be calling tenders for primary and secondary-source suppliers for the Full-Rate Production program, involving up to 5,000 aircraft over 15-20 year.

Lingering dissatisfaction over Australia's share so far in the JSF program must be offset against the potential rewards of participating in the LRIP and FRP phases of the project. But those rewards are available principally to companies that have performed well on the SDD phase and have kept their skills up and their costs down - hence the importance of winning work, however small, on the SDD phase.

What the JSF program has shown Australia's industry- and that of many of the other international partners - is that it needs to invest constantly in skills (including, and perhaps especially, management skills) and R&D to be counted as truly competitive in what is becoming a global marketplace. For the first time, Australian firms are having to compete directly with rivals in the USA and Europe and the results, both good and bad, have sometimes been surprising.

With a growing trend towards the establishment of global supply chains, the JSF program may leave Australia's military aerospace industry better placed to secure export work in the future. But the unwritten law seems to be that, in most cases, a place in the global supply chain is really only available to Australian companies if Australia is a potential customer for the end product.

In defence, as always, one of the most powerful market forces is political. This means that unless local companies forge powerful relationships with the large overseas prime contractors who are their principal customers, the health of Australia's military aerospace industry still depends to a degree many companies probably find uncomfortable on Australia's government

By Gregor Ferguson, Adelaide