In this fortnightly online column, ADM journalist Corey Lee Bell covers defence news across Japan and the Republic of Korea.
The latest variant of South Korea’s Hyunmoo-series ballistic missile will soon be ready for large scale deployment, and would help create a “balance of fear” between Seoul and nuclear-armed North Korea, Seoul’s Minister of National Defence Ahn Gyu-back told Yonhap News Agency last Friday.
Dubbed by Ahn as a “monster missile,” the Hyunmoo-5 is a cold-launched, 2 stage solid-fuel medium range “bunker buster” ballistic missile capable of carrying 8-9 tonne penetrative or conventional high explosive warheads.
It is roughly three times that of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) dropped on Iran's Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant and Natanz Nuclear Facility in June.
Its penetrative power is also enhanced by its hypersonic terminal velocity, touted to be in the vicinity of Mach 10.
The missile’s capability to strike underground facilities has seen it linked with Seoul’s Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) deterrence strategy – part of the “three axis system” strategy developed over the last decade to counter North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats.
KMPR includes targeting potential underground hideouts that may be used by North Korea’s leaders in the event of a conflict, as well as facilities housing command-and-control infrastructure and military bunkers.
South Korean press has also speculated that the missile could be used to prosecute Kill Chain – the first axis – which involves preemptive, precision strikes against North Korean missile silos.
Speaking of the new missile’s ability to serve as a credible non-nuclear deterrent against nuclear-armed North Korea, Ahn, citing unnamed experts, said “around 15-20 high powered missiles can have more [destructive] power than a nuclear missile… The Hyunmoo-5 can achieve a balance of fear commensurate to nuclear weapons.”
Estimates published in the Korean masthead Chosun Biz say that the Hyunmoo-5’s production, which has been contracted to Korean defence prime Hanwha, run at about 70 missiles per year – more than three times that of the GBU-57.
Noting reports that North Korea produces between 10 to 20 nuclear warheads per year, Ahn added that efforts are being undertaken to ramp up production to ensure that Seoul can “secure the numbers needed for an overwhelming response to achieve a ‘balance of fear’.”
He also stated that the new system is being complemented by ongoing development to improve the lethality of the nation’s missile arsenal, as well as plans for a large scale increase in the volume and multiplicity of weapons including ship-to-surface and surface-to-surface missiles, and the expanded use of Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) to convert unguided bombs into precision-guided munitions (PGMs).
The rollout of the new missile system, slated to begin later this year, also comes against the backdrop of Seoul’s move to hasten the transfer of wartime operation command (OPCON) from the United States, which gained control during the Korean War, to South Korea.
Both Washington and Seoul agreed in principle to a transfer in 2014, with one of the three core conditions being Seoul’s possession of a credible deterrence capability.
Ahn stated that South Korea is on track to meet the conditions for a handover of command before the expiry of current President Lee Jae Myung’s term in 2030, noting progress in improving the capabilities of South Korea’s military and strong defence budget increases.
Seoul has pledged to spend 2.3 per cent of the nation’s GDP (66.3 trillion won = AU $71.8 billion) on defence in 2026 – an 8.2 per cent rise on the previous year – with a target of spending 3.5 per cent by 2035, in line with the NATO benchmark.
Spending on strengthening the three axis system – seen as a key factor for facilitating the transfer of command – is set to rise over 22 per cent in 2026 to 8.9 trillion won (AU $9.6 billion), with roughly 1.8 trillion won (AU $1.9 billion) to be set aside for projects associated with the KMPR axis.