When Iran launched a missile attack against the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in late June, US missile defences promptly blew incoming rockets from the sky, with no casualties and only minor damage to the facility.
Thirteen missiles were shot down by US Patriot missile batteries, with another allowed to crash harmlessly off target.
As impressive an outcome as that was, it required around 50 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles, said Kenn Todorov, Vice President and General Manager for Northrop Grumman Defence Systems.
According to media reports, that was the largest single Patriot engagement in US military history. It was likely also the most expensive as each Patriot PAC-3 SME costs as much as US$7 million.
“Now if you think about the economics of that, it’s not sustainable,” he told ADM.
Todorov, a former deputy director of the US Missile Defense Agency, said Northrop Grumman modelled the engagement to see how it could have turned out using their Integrated Battle command System (IBCS), which is able to link multiple different sensors and effectors - even from different companies and different nations.
“I can’t give you the exact number, but I will say that the number of interceptors we had to launch to take down those 13 threats was much closer to one to one,” he said.
Todorov said Patriot was a fantastic weapon, albeit decades old, designed to operate autonomously as a standalone deployed system using its own radar, command and control node and missiles.
He said IBCS was a revolutionary system that completely modernised Patriot.
IBCS integrates radars, command nodes and missiles, even from sources such as Aegis warships and F-35 aircraft, allowing coordination of launches and prioritisation of targets. In the Al Udeid engagement, it would appear some or all threats were targeted by multiple Patriots.
This is a current capability, in service in Poland and in full rate production in the US for the US military.
“IBCS is likely the system of choice for the US Golden Dome capability for IAMD for something that the architects of Golden Dome are calling the under layer, which is surface to somewhere short of the exo-atmosphere,” he said
“IBCS will be the controlling battle command system for missile defence for the US homeland.”
It’s a capability which could be of interest for Australia’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) system being acquired through Project Air 6500. Phase one will deliver a Joint Air and Battle Management System (JABMS).
Todorov said he had discussed IAMD with Australian defence officials during his recent visit to Australia.
The Australian Defence Force is now standing up a Joint Air Battle Management System under Project Air 6500, with Lockheed Martin Australia chosen as prime contractor. That will create the architecture at the core of the Australian Defence Force’s future Integrated Air and Missile Defence capability.
That doesn’t rule out a role for Northrop Grumman’s IBCS.
“Where the Commonwealth comes in, in my view, is that if there’s a need for a present day capable here and now IAMD system, if the Commonwealth wanted that capabilities in the short term, it’s something that should be considered,” Todorov said.
“I have had some conversations with some leaders from the defence community about integrated air and missile defence, about some of the things around the globe. The threat is incredibly challenging and is only getting more so.”
He said the missile threat had advanced in terms of quantity, with more missiles out there. Their quality had improved with higher lethality, greater range and less susceptibility to countermeasures.
“One of the key things which I really think has changed the game in the last 5-10 years is missile threat diversity. There are so many kinds of threats. It used to be we just worried about a ballistic trajectory,” he said.
“Now we have 300 drones flying simultaneous to a ballistic missile launch, simultaneous to a cruise missile threat at low level. Now you add hypersonic threats into the mix.
“The diversity of the threat has made the IAMD problem so much more challenging. That’s why we think a system like IBCS is so vitally important.”