Trends driving the deterioration in Australia’s strategic environment have broadened and intensified in the last two years, elevating the risks to security and prosperity over the coming decade, the latest National Defence Strategy (NDS) says.
International norms against the use of force and coercion are weakening, with more states already engaged in conflict at the start of 2024 than at any point since 1946, it says.
“The net effect is that Australia will face elevated levels of geopolitical risk over the coming decade and our exposure to force projection and military coercion will reach levels not seen since the Second World War,” it says.
Despite the erratic conduct of the US Trump administration, the NDS says any effective balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific will require the continued presence and role of the US.
“However, as the cost of strategic competition grows, the United States increasingly expects its allies and partners to invest more in their own defence, reduce their reliance on the United States military and contribute more to collective defence,” the NDS says.
Australia’s geography still offers certain strategic advantages but it cannot protect us against new long-range missiles, space and cyber capabilities, disinformation, supply chain disruptions or the erosion of global rules and norms.
“Missile systems, including more sophisticated data-driven sensor-shooter networks, have matured, giving states the reach to impose strategic effects further from their borders.”
Ahead of the launch of the NDS and accompanying Integrated Investment Program (IIP) Defence Minister Richard Marles revealed that defence will increase by $53 billion over the next decade, with $14 billion more over the next four years.
The government says that will lift defence spending to around three per cent of GDP by 2033. Right now, it’s a bit over two per cent, at $58.99 billion in 2025-26.
However, the three per cent GDP figure is based on use of NATO budgeting methodology which includes defence-adjacent spending in areas such as pensions. That’s already drawn accusations of using accounting tricks to bump up the numbers.
Budget figures in the NDS indicate defence spending will reach $80.1 billion in 2029-30.
Acquisition of new capability will grow from $19.2 billion in 2024-25 to $22.4 billion in 2026-27 and $47.5 billion in 2035-36.
One significant new capability acquisition will be a fleet of Speartooth large uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs), in addition to Ghost Shark UUVs announced last year.
Speartooth will be used for shorter range intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, strike and logistics operations.
“Due to its smaller size and lower unit cost, Speartooth is optimised for seabed warfare and agile undersea operations, reaching areas Ghost Shark cannot,” the IIP says.
The IIP also reaffirms plans to acquire six Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels with up to 32 vertical launch system cells to increase the ADF maritime long-range strike capability.
These vessels will be developed in line with international developments, innovation and investment and be built at Henderson Defence Precinct from the mid-2030s.
The IIP says the Government is accelerating acquisition of cutting-edge drone and counter-drone technologies to protect ADF personnel, equipment, infrastructure, bases and major events.
It also reveals a planned new investment in a medium-range, ground-based air defence system to defeat advanced aircraft and missiles.
“This program will commence as a priority from 2026, with investment to build a resilient, networked capability that will form a core component of the National Integrated Air and Missile Defence System,” it says.
Their once major defence planning documents were updated intermittently, that’s now done on a two-yearly cycle to take into account more rapidly occurring changes in the strategic outlook.
That’s especially so in the two years since the release of the last NDS and IIP in April 2024.
The US Trump administration has grown increasingly erratic. Donald Trump’s war on Iran has thrust the world into another oil shock akin to the 1970s, highlighting the parlous state of Australia’s national fuel security.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has shown how wars of the future may well be dominated by low-cost unmanned systems, rather than exquisite crewed platforms which now dominate the force structure of the Australian Defence Force.
The NDS specifically recognises the lessons from Ukraine, saying the Government’s defence strategy takes these into account.
“It is clear that Australia needs the industrial capability that can adapt to make what we need and in the quantities we require in times of crisis or conflict,” it says.
“In light of our more dangerous strategic environment, the Government is determined to ensure that Australia becomes more self-reliant, more resilient and takes greater responsibility for our own security. Strengthening our National Defence is a prudent and effective approach to achieve those objectives.”
The NDS affirms the Strategy of Denial aims to deter any conflict before it begins, prevent any potential adversary from succeeding in coercing Australia through force, support regional security and prosperity and uphold a favourable regional strategic balance.
It also affirms the commitment to acquiring nuclear powered submarines.
The war in Ukraine has highlighted how vital is supply of munitions, how quickly stockpiles can be depleted and the fragility of supply chains for global weapons.
“In line with the 2024 Australian Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Plan, the Government is pursuing a comprehensive approach to building Defence’s guided weapons and explosive ordnance stocks, strengthening supply chains and supporting a domestic manufacturing capability. This will ensure Defence has access to the stocks of ordnance it would need in a conflict,” it says.