Despite lofty goals, Defence by and large is still failing to attract and retain the skilled uniformed personnel it needs for the planned Australian Defence Force (ADF) of the future. The 2024 Federal Budget, released on 14 May, revealed that all services other than the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) have continued to shrink despite a focus on the issue.
This failure to grow is particularly concerning when compared to Defence’s plans for its workforce out to 2027-2028, when the forward estimates period concludes. In 2027-2028 Defence has forecast a demand for 66,873 uniformed personnel, which represents a 14.8 per cent increase on top the current workforce of around 58,242 people.
That 66,873 people goal is split between the Army (32,174), RAAF (17,370), and Royal Australian Navy (RAN) (17,329).
The chances of Defence meeting this growth is cast into doubt by its recruiting performance - or lack thereof - over the last five years since 2020 during generally favourable conditions. Because of COVID-19, unemployment was high, people were locked in their homes reconsidering their career choices, and the labour market was slack.
While this translated into a modest boost for Defence it did not approach anywhere near the 14.8 per cent that is needed over the next four years. Indeed, Defence’s workforce shrunk by around 1.4 per cent or 867 people, over the five-year period despite the favourable recruiting conditions.
The boost that Defence did receive from the COVID-19 pandemic, which temporarily increased its workforce to a high of 60,486 in 2021, was quickly lost in the years following the end of COVID-19 restrictions as experienced personnel, mainly in the Army and RAN, left the force.
If Defence isn’t an attractive offering for people during times of significant economic stress it raises questions about how Defence will perform over the coming four years as it tries to reach the 66,873 personnel goal.
While unemployment is slowly rising, it’s unlikely to reach the highs of the pandemic, and Defence itself projects that the labour market will remain exceedingly tight, particularly for the highly skilled workers that Defence is in most desperate need of.
“The highly competitive national labour market and record low levels of unemployment will continue to put pressure on Defence’s ability to grow the workforce, particularly in regard to the recruitment of people to the ADF with the required skill sets,” the Department of Defence stated in its 2024/2025 Portfolio Budget Statement (PBS).
The Past Five Years
All three services have changed their personnel requirements for 2023-2024 over the years with none – aside from the RAAF - ever meeting them. Aside from the RAN, these requirements have always been reduced to make the services performance against the target look better.
In a particularly striking example of this trend, until 2022-2023, the RAAF’s requirements for 2023-2024 have remained relatively static between around 15,450-15,650, however, in 2022-2023 the service slashed its requirement down to just 15,181 which allowed it to exceed its target in in 2023-2024 with a strength of 15,253.
The Army has also revised down its estimate for 2023-2024, from 31,391 in 2020-2021 down to 28,536 in 2023-2024. Only the RAN has increased its personnel target over the same time, from 15,863 in 2020-2021 to 15,956 in 2023-2024.
Air Force Bucks the Growth Trend
While the Army has reduced in size and the RAN has somewhat stagnated, the RAAF has grown almost constantly over the same period. Apart one year of negative growth in 2023, the RAAF has grown every year since 2020 and increased its size by 5.8 per cent from 14,365 people in 2020 to 15,253 people in 2024. It’s also secured the best performance by far this year, with the service already have recorded growth of 2.90 per cent.
In comparison, over the same period, the RAN grew by just 1.3 per cent from 14,821 people in 2020 to 15,030 in 2024. Furthermore, all that growth can be attributed to the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the force losing more people than it is gaining every year since 2023.
The picture is even worse for the Army which has shrunk by 6.5 per cent from 29,923 in 2020 to 27,959 people in 2024. During that time, it was only in 2021 that more people entered the service then left - and that bump has already been wiped out by further losses.
The RAAF’s better performance also puts it closest to its goal for 2027/2028 at 87.8 per cent of the desired force for then, compared to 86.89 per cent for the Army and 86.73 percent for the RAN.
