Over the coming two decades, Navy and the DMO have an impressive shipbuilding task ahead of them. At a glance the list is patrol boats, Future Frigates, oilers and replenishment, landing craft, submarines and a possible OCV type vessel. Works for each of these programs are at different stages but there is still much to be done on all fronts.
Thanks to a bevy of reviews over the last few years and some very hard work, Navy is changed placed, according to Chief of Navy Vice Admiral Ray Griggs (see more in our From the Source interview this month on P82). The Coles and Rizzo reports on submarines and engineering in particular have shown the way ahead for an organisation that has come a long way from the days where the Defence Minister publically whipped the complete lack of amphibious capability available only three years ago.
Since then, HMAS Choules has entered the fleet, HMA Ships Manoora and Kanimbla have been retired and Tobruk, at the ripe old age of 32, has improved availability. This is also supplemented by access to HMNZS Canterbury, a multi-role vessel of the Royal NZ Navy.
In early 2011, it was announced that the ship would form the core asset of a joint Australia-NZ task force for disaster-relief operations. It was noted that Canterbury was currently the only appropriate vessel available to the navies of the two countries for such tasks.
The patrol boats are being worked hard on Australia’s northern approaches but are functioning in good health after some well documented issues related to their aluminium construction.
The successor to HMA Ships Success, Sirius and the now retired Westralia is probably the closest build program on the horizon. The Spanish SPS Cantabria is a replenishment oiler operated by the Spanish Armada. Acquired to provide logistical support for the Spanish fleet, Cantabria was commissioned in 2010 but has been calling Australia home for 2013.
On 3 July 2012, the Australian and Spanish governments signed an agreement to deploy Cantabria in support of the Royal Australian Navy during 2013. The ship will operate in Australian waters from February to November 2013, and will be used to provide replenishment support to the Australians while the oiler HMAS Success undergoes maintenance.
The deployment will also allow Australian personnel to train on systems similar to those in the Spanish-designed LHDs and AWDs, and allow the RAN to evaluate the design as a possible replacement for its replenishment vessels. There is a school of thought that Navantia will simply build the RAN a Cantabria or two to fill the requirement. The finer details of such a build (an AWD or LHD style builds) are yet to be determined.
Either way, the schedule for both the patrol boats (see P50) and replenishment ships have been made priorities by the new government who would like to see both programs progress much faster. What this means for industry is yet to be determined as the new government settles in.
The oft-mentioned Valley of Death for Australian shipbuilders (see The View from Canberra this month for more on the Valley of Death), particularly the BAE Systems Williamstown dockyard in Victoria, is well and truly upon industry. Even if a decision was made tomorrow about any of the classes of ships mentioned earlier, there will be gaps in build programs between the LHDs, AWDs and Cape class patrol boats for Customs.
Big builds
The big build programs on the horizon are the Future Frigates and the Future Submarine. While the Future Submarine build under Sea 1000 is still some time off yet, industry has already begun laying the groundwork for their offerings to replace the Anzac class frigates. International and local designers and builders are gearing up for what looks like a tightly contested race (see P28 for more).
The Commonwealth has made it clear that they would prefer an off the shelf design with minimal Australianisation, a favoured approach across the ADF. There are literally almost a dozen designs that could possible meet the requirement as it currently stands.
The devil of course, is always in the details. These details are still in the process of coming together. The current 2012 DCP provides little detail apart from studies involving the evolution of the Phased Array Radar technology from CEA Technologies that had made the ASMD program such a success. Readers can but hope that a new DCP will shed more light on the path being taken by the Commonwealth.
The other elephant in the room of course is the Future Submarine. The previous Government committed to assembling the 12 new submarines in South Australia, a move which the new government seems to support. Four options were originally considered.
The Government is considering four broad options for the future submarines: 1. MOTS (modified options); 2. Modified MOTS (with systems of our choice); 3. Evolved MOTS and 4. New Design submarine.
This was narrowed down to the last two options earlier this year, as the first two options could not meet the demanding Australian requirements. Current Sea 1000 timing calls for decisions to be made on combat systems, sensors, weapons systems and torpedos in 2013 and First Pass Approval to follow in late 2013 or early 2014. Second Pass is projected to occur sometime in 2017 and construction to begin shortly thereafter.
There have already been concerns raised by industry and the Submarine Institute of Australia that the timing is already behind for the new submarine class that would replace the Collins in the late 2020s. But the life of Collins may very well be extended should current studies under the Service Life Evaluation Program (SLEP study).
Additionally, the study also considered the possibility of a service life extension for the Collins fleet beyond the current on paper service life for the fleet of 2024 to 2031. The study found there is no single technical issue that would fundamentally prevent the Collins Class submarines from achieving their theoretical platform life, their planned withdrawal dates, or a service life extension of one operating cycle for the fleet, which is currently around seven years, excluding full cycle docking periods. As well, under the Coles Review, improved management of the Collins Class is expected to extend the operating cycle.
Cost so far
In May this year, the government announced $214 million in funding to examine the options and support services needed for the Future Submarine. A look through the Austender website reveals that between September 2008 and August 2013, the Commonwealth has spent only $23.6 million on Sea 1000 related activities.
The most costly of these activities were related to FMS information from the US (for sensitive technology ADM assumes). But there are other Sea 1000 related costs that have not gone through this avenue that are not available at this time.
Given that the government or defence have never really outlined the overall cost of the program, the most widely cited figure relating to the project is that of $36 billion was put forward by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute team in their 2009 paper How to Buy a Submarine. A follow up paper by Andrew Davies in March this year What price the Future submarine? further explains the pricing guide and assumptions ASPI is using.
This will be the most expensive and complex program Defence has evener undertaken. The lessons learned from the UK and US build programs are daunting but the options being pursued by government will make the road ahead interesting to say the least.
The lessons from Collins have been observed but whether they have actually been learned by a new generation of Navy, acquisition officials and industry remains to be seen.
There is no doubt that ADM will be writing about submarines and the wider shipbuilding industry for the next 20 years at least.
