The current plan is for the Boeing P-8A Poseidon to fulfil the manned requirement, under Air 7000 Phase 2B, with the unmanned solution (Phase 1B) further into the future and dependent upon several factors, including budgetary considerations and platform maturity.
Air Force is facing several issues keeping the AP-3C in the air until its planned withdrawal date in the 2020 timeframe, including structural fatigue and corrosion issues, systems obsolescence due to the unique configuration of the upgraded AP-3C and maintenance costs. In fact, gradual fleet draw-down has already begun and Chief of Air Force Air Marshal Geoff Brown has admitted that Air Force is ‘very much on the back end of the bathtub curve’ (see ‘From The Source’ ADM February 2014).
Second Pass Approval for Phase 2B was due in February, as ADM closed for press and, assuming everything goes to plan, a timely contract signature is required to secure slots on the production line required for Poseidon to replace Orion as planned.
Program overview
The US Navy is acquiring the P-8A Poseidon and Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton to fulfil its Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) program and, like Australia, the manned aircraft is leading the way.
The current program of record in the US is for 117 aircraft, although there have been reports that the number may be trimmed due to budget constraints. Boeing has delivered 13 out of the 37 aircraft currently under contract, either on or slightly ahead of schedule, under Low Rate Initial Production lots 1 & 2.
LRIP 3 deliveries (11 aircraft) will begin in the second quarter of this year with LRIP 4 (13 aircraft) to follow. In early January the green light was given for full rate production to begin in yearly batches, beginning with the contract for FRP1 in 2015. The present plan is to deliver approximately one aircraft per month through to the end of the program.
In addition, Boeing has delivered three similar P-8I Neptunes to the Indian Navy, with each arriving in-country slightly ahead of contract schedule. India has eight Neptunes on order and will receive the fourth aircraft in the second quarter of this year.
Poseidon has been undergoing operational test and evaluation with the US Navy, which resulted in declaration of the Initial Operating Capability (IOC) milestone on November 4 last year. Just prior to IOC, the first squadron to deploy Poseidon outside the US, VP-16 from NAS Jacksonville in Florida, completed its’ Operational Readiness Evaluation.
The six-aircraft squadron deployed to the US 7th Fleet Area of Operations in Japan in November and December last year and are supporting 7th Fleet maritime domain awareness efforts in the Indo-Asia-Pacific.
Bad press
Shortly after the deployment began operations, US press reports leaked details of a report into the P-8As performance by Michael Gilmore, Chief of the Pentagon testing office, which claimed that Poseidon was not yet effective in its primary warfighting roles.
The press reports inferred the capability deployed to Japan was not as effective as the existing US Navy P-3C Orion anti-submarine force and was deficient in several key areas, including radar performance and sensor integration.
ADM contacted Boeing, the US Navy Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft Program Office (PMA-290) and the US 7th fleet to find out if the claims were true.
James Detwiler, Director Maritime Programs for Boeing pointed out that the report was a result of testing begun in 2012 and completed early last year and the subject aircraft were not operational airframes.
“Those were not production aircraft; those were production-representative test vehicles that are part of developmental test and operational test,” he said. “Many of those issues raised have been taken care of,” pointing out that the IOC milestone has fixed capability benchmarks and could not have been achieved if there was a capability shortfall.
“The P-8A is an evolutionary acquisition program and will deliver capability to the Fleet in three major increments. One of the most important requirements for this first increment is to recapitalize the capability of the legacy USN P-3C which remains highly effective on-station but is approaching the end of its useful airframe fatigue life. Extensive testing, as well as considerable and rapidly increasing the USN Fleet experience with the P-8A have shown that the aircraft not only meets all the Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) defined in its requirements documentation, but also improves upon the ASW capabilities of the legacy P-3C aircraft in ways that are proving to be of immediate advantage to forward deployed units,” detailed PMA-290 Program Manager Captain Scott Dillon.
“As part of a long established strategy to continuously improve the P-8A’s capabilities, the program updated the IOT&E software and delivered this improved configuration to the US Navy Fleet in October 2013. This software update improved and enhanced Radar performance, data transfer communications links, Electronic Support Measures (ESM) performance, and EO/IR sensor integration. The updated software is currently supporting the successful operational employment of the aircraft.”
On January 24th, the day following the release of the story in the United States, Pacific Fleet commander, Admiral Harry Harris flew with VP-16 from Japan on an eight-hour maritime surveillance mission over the East China Sea.
“This is a super aircraft. Within just three months of arriving for it’s first-ever deployment, it’s already a huge leap forward in capability for the Pacific Fleet,” he said on his return from the sortie. “The software upgrades that were put in place last fall have paid off in providing an immediate and effective advantage in ASW, ISR and sensor integration. In my opinion, the P-8A is exceeding its key performance parameters by a wide margin. This is exactly what we need to fight tonight. Send more my way!”
Comparing Poseidon’s capabilities with the current USN P-3C AIP (Anti-Submarine Warfare Improvement Program) aircraft, 7th Fleet Commander Vice Admiral Robert Thomas was equally effusive.
“I am extremely impressed with VP-16 and the P-8A Poseidon’s performance during their inaugural deployment to Seventh Fleet. The P-8A’s ISR capability represents a significant improvement over the P-3C, providing the opportunity to detect, track and report on more targets than ever before,” he said. “This continues to be validated throughout the course of the aircraft’s time here. I had the opportunity to fly with the squadron and witnessed their capabilities first-hand. This aircraft is a game-changer.”
Increment two and beyond
The aircraft currently deployed are Increment One standard, which represents the initial operating baseline comprising persistent armed anti-submarine warfare (ASW), an integrated sensor suite, and significant improvement in situational awareness over the P-3C, and the PMA-290 roadmap includes Increment Two, which will be introduced from 2016.
“Increment Two is a technology insertion program that is mostly software in nature and those will be introduced over a series of engineering changes to the aircraft,” Detwiler said.
The phased integration will add a multi-static active coherent acoustics under an Acoustic Processor Technology Refresh (ATPR); automated identification system under Engineering Change Proposal 1 (ECP1) which will upgrade the interface with the US Navy’s TacMobile ground station; and ECP2 which will add a further TacMobile update and High Altitude Anti-Submarine sensor and weapons capability.
Increment Three is planned to add network-ready systems architecture, further upgrade ASW and communications capabilities as well as introducing a net-enabled Anti-Surface Warfare (ASuW) capability, together with improved targeting.
The US Navy plans Increment roll-out beginning either late 2018 or early 2019, with an IOC in 2020.
“The USN is looking at a number of different ways to introduce the technology insertions. For example, if they could get a technology that’s mature, that has a Technology Readiness Level, ready for insertion, tested successfully and funded, they may not wait until the end of the decade, but do it as soon as budget allows,” Detwiler predicted.
“Increment Three is centred on capabilities such as wide-band SATCOM and precision strike weapons; you have to be capable of rapidly inserting that capability and then quickly modifying the whole fleet to that standard, because you don’t want to have several variants of the aircraft out there. It needs to be one common baseline.”
Air 7000 PHASE 2B
With Second Pass Approval imminent Defence unfortunately declined to comment on its P-8A acquisition plans, but if the AP-3C is to be retired on time, even a small delay to contract signature could result in a 12-month delay to the program, because of the yearly FRP contracting system.
“Looking at their delivery intentions they will probably be part of FRP2 and FRP3 contracts, which are year on year contracts because we’re not in a multi-year posture,” Detwiler explained to ADM in late January.
“Second Pass is on the horizon and following successful approval, we expect the US Navy and Royal Australian Air Force will contract for the next production lot on the roadmap, which will be FRP2.”
The actual delivery profile will also be a matter of negotiation between the US and Australian governments and could vary by up to 12 months, depending on whether aircraft are early, in the middle or at the end of each FRP lot.
With Australian aircraft to come from the first full-rate production batch at the earliest, the aircraft will be delivered to Increment Two standard and will be identical to the current-build US Navy Poseidons.
“We’re building a common configuration; they just have to tell us what markings to paint on the outside,” Detwiler said.
There has been speculation that the Australian requirement for eight aircraft as laid out in the 2012 DCP will be increased, with a subsequent downwards adjustment of unmanned system numbers.
At the Pacific 2013 show in Sydney last year, Boeing revealed it had been doing some modelling in its Systems Analysis Laboratory in Brisbane to determine what it thought the right mix might be.
“Our understanding is that the Australian program of record is for eight aircraft, we haven’t been told otherwise but the Second Pass Approval process should clarify that, in terms of the force structure requirement,” Detwiler said in late January.
“Several different types of operational analysis have revealed that 12 is probably the number that meets their strategic requirements, present and future, and that they are able to acquire those within the current Air 7000 budget. There has been a 30 per cent reduction in Unit Flyaway cost between the first four lots of P-8, so that makes it quite affordable.
