This is the first of our new Global Outlook series where we discuss the latest global geopolitical developments that we're keeping an eye on.
We start by quickly noting that Canada is seeking to become an associate member of the EU in order to balance against threats from the United States, while there are rumours of Xi Jinping's possible health issues which, true or not, highlight the impacts to China's leadership if he should pass without an heir. A situation which would also apply to Russia should Putin's health give out.
Moving on we look at Kevin Rudd's recent speach at the Australian Institute of International Affairs where he highlighted the size of our coastline and our dependence on trade to justify the need for a World Class Navy and nuclear attack submarines. While we do not disagree about the need for a world class navy, we note our concerns at the number of maritime and joint capabilities that have been cancelled or reduced in order to fund AUKUS. The list is long and that's not even including purely Army or Air Force capabilities. We also note that Canada has a longer coastline than Australia and they have purchased advanced diesel electric submarines from TKMS, not nuclear boats. We also note that if we want to protect trade, our largest trade partner is China, but we are justifying AUKUS as defence against China. Our concern is that we will not have a world class Navy if we keep defunding new and updated capabilities while not funding sustainment to the levels our current Navy requires.
Next up is, of course, the Houthis taking control of Western Yemen and being in the perfect position to deny Saudi vessels access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. We note that the Saudi's lack of embedded officers with the Yemenis to coordinate strikes from long range fires or aircraft meant that there were no airstrikes on the Houthis. We also discuss the USA declining to support the Saudis and that Iran now has some level of control over two critical oil routes.
From there we look at Stephen Miller's claims that rule of power and might is now the way of the world, as it previous has been, ignoring the evidence that demonstrates the fallacy of this argument: Iran hasn't capitulated and Greenland hasn't been invaded. If anything this reinforces the power of the bond market and how the USA remains tied to NATO as the USA's senior leadership becomes an echo chamber following the loss of so many experienced staff from the State Department and Department of Defence.
We wrap by returning to nuclear attack submarines and note that, while they are incredible and powerful elements of a world class navy, they are not the solution to everything. A balanced force is required for a world class Navy and Australia is not committing the funds required to ensure it has one.
Links:
Utopia clip regarding boosting defence to protect our trade with China from China
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgspkxfkS4k
Stephen Miller Says ‘Nobody’s Going To Fight’ US Over Greenland
https://www.newsweek.com/stephen-miller-says-no-one-will-fight-us-over-greenland-11312514
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