In this Global Outlook episode, we look at Lula retaining power, Israel's post-election uncertainty as coalitions are negotiated, the IRGC's ability to strike Australia, and how South Korea's DAPA could be an example for Australia's DDA.
We kick off with a look at the Brazilian election where Lula has surged to a win after being placed second following the first round of voting. Indications are that this could be more an anti-Bolsonaro result than embracing Lula, but the implications for the country's engagements with the USA and China are yet to be determined as both candidates were dealing with China.
As expected, the Israeli election failed to provide a clear winner so negotiations are in progress to establish a coalition to run the country. If Netanyahu is unable to form a coalition, it will be the end of an era. Regardless of which group emerges, the Middle East remains a complicated geopolitical arena and the results are expected to have major regional repercussions.
While Iran's regional power has been reduced, the recently uncovered IRGC plot to perform a drone attack against US bombers at a UK airbase shows the country still has a global reach. It also highlights how US aircraft are vulnerable to the equivalent of Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web and the need for increased protection from drones and hardened protections for aircraft on the ground. This has major implications for Australia's bases as recent drone incursions at RAAF Williamtown have demonstrated.
We wrap with a look at South Korea's defence exports and how its Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) owns the IP for military programs, dealing build and maintenance work out to multiple companies across a program's lifespan. This helps ensure consistency of work for the companies and scaling efforts through exports as well as domestic consumption. While Australia doesn't have the same proximity to an immediate threat, it represents a model that the new Defence Delivery Agency could align to. With the Korean International Army Defence Exhibition (K-DEX) approaching once again, ADM will be attending to assess how this middle power is progressing.
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