Katherine Ziesing | Canberra
If you glean nothing else from the Budget chatter over the next few days, the moral of the story is about shipbuilding jobs as far as the wider government is concerned.
At least that would be your impression if you only listened the Treasurers speech and read the release from the Minister for Defence Senator Marise Payne. The national narrative is about tax, super and jobs growth.
The ‘don’t talk about the war’ issues are cuts to education, health, the NDIS when a unicorn-like magical surplus is achieved. There are may others of course but that’s the nutshell version.
A closer look at the Budget reveals a lack of ‘announceables’ when it comes to big ticket Defence items (but last few weeks have not lacked for them) but the machinery of Defence continues to function with $32.3 billion in funding this financial year and $142.9 billion across the four-year forward estimates.
According to ASPI’s Mark Thomson, the Defence share of GDP is 1.88 per cent, a respectable figure that supports a push to two per cent of GDP by 2020-2021.
But at its heart, this budget is about people wearing fluro PPE in shipyards around the country, mainly in WA and SA.
Many of the dots that first appeared in the Defence White Paper, Integrated Investment Plan and Defence Industry Policy Statement have not been joined up in this document.
Measures such as the Innovation Hub, Next Generation Technology Fund and Centre for Defence Industry Capability go unmentioned.
Indeed many of the measures and programs outlined in that trifecta are beyond the forward estimates timeframe, according to Defence officials in the Budget lockup.
Total operational funding is down on previous years but this is not exactly a disaster; a more stable Middle East with a modest ADF presence in a coalition environment is not a bad thing.
Workforce numbers for the ADF increase by about 800 over the forward estimates and the APS workforce will stabilise at 18,200 and stay there well into the foreseeable future. But neither of those figures are new as they were part of the White Paper.
The Budget in this case confirms what many Defence watchers already know; good times ahead for maritime programs and everything else is ticking along in the background.
Cyber gets a brief mention but as part of wider government program under the National Innovation and Science Agenda.
In all, there are eight departments or agencies involved in this space.
The governments $230 million cyber security strategy includes $194.9 million over the four years to enact a number of the strategies already announced.
The kicker is a single line in the Budget statement of “the cost of these initiatives will be met from within the existing resources of Defence”.
That is a common theme in the Budget this year; separating out the new funding from the old.
The accrual accounting system makes this more difficult than necessary but this is the standard that the Department of Finance has mandated for the whole of government so Defence in not alone in its opaqueness.
ADM confirmed with Defence officials last week that the website to support the IIP in greater depth is ready to go but has yet to receive final sign off to go live. Whether this will occur in the current election climate remains to be seen.
The capital investment program is an ambitious one, with Defence being asked to spend an increasing number of billions in the coming years.
Capital investment program ($billion)
2016-2017 $10.8
2017-2018 $11.4
2018-2019 $12.97
2019-2020 $14
Given the track record Defence has seen over the last two decades, they won’t be able to hand money over fast enough.
It’s a good problem to have but it does mean that all the changes outlined in the First Principles Review, which are being bedded down or still being implemented, will need to make some significant gains over the forward estimates if successive governments and Defence are to keep to their stated plans.